PolyBigFish

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Live probability · Updated

Yes
28.7%
▼ 0.8% 24h
No
71.3%
▲ 0.7% 24h

24h volume$162.28K

Probability

  • Yes28.7%
  • No71.3%
Dots mark big trades
13.6%31.8%50%68.2%86.4%Yes · Buy $23.21K · 29.9¢Yes · Sell $11.34K · 31.1¢10/30/202611/6/2026
$23.21K
BuyYes
30¢
kcyeu
Just now77.7K
Unusual
$11.34K
SellYes
31¢
lalafel007
Just now36.5K
Unusual
$15.29K
SellNo
65¢
HukaBars
Just now23.5K
Unusual
$14.78K
BuyNo
63¢
HukaBars
Just now23.5K
Unusual
$10.79K
BuyYes
43¢
anoin123
Just now25.2K
Unusual

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$45K$11.34K
No$14.78K$15.29K

Participating traders

Review this market
Resolution rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).