PolyBigFish

Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Live probability · Updated

Yes
98.1%
▲ 0.8% 24h
No
1.9%
▼ 0.9% 24h

24h volume$288.9K

Probability

  • Yes98.1%
  • No1.9%
Dots mark big trades
0%25%50%75%100%Yes · Buy $51.81K · 98.5¢Yes · Buy $38.64K · 98.0¢Yes · Buy $16K · 90.8¢Yes · Buy $30K · 91.1¢Yes · Buy $10.31K · 86.0¢Yes · Buy $12.76K · 75.0¢Yes · Buy $13.96K · 75.0¢Yes · Sell $10.41K · 75.1¢No · Sell $12.94K · 95.0¢No · Buy $10.97K · 89.0¢10/30/202611/6/2026
$51.81K
BuyYes
98¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
Just now52.6K
Unusual
$38.64K
BuyYes
98¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
Just now39.4K
Unusual
$16K
BuyYes
91¢
Sagand
Just now17.6K
Unusual
$30K
BuyYes
91¢
Sagand
Just now32.9K
Unusual
$10.31K
BuyYes
86¢
Contestable-Parfait
Just now12K
$10.41K
SellYes
75¢
SnowLover7
Just now13.9K
$12.94K
SellNo
95¢
Buy1Get1Free
Just now13.6K

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$173.48K$10.41K
No$22.39K$12.94K

Participating traders

Review this market
Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.