PolyBigFish

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Live probability · Updated

Yes
77.5%
▲ 0.0% 24h
No
22.5%
▲ 0.0% 24h

24h volume$1.22M

Probability

  • Yes77.5%
  • No22.5%
Dots mark big trades
9%29.5%50%70.5%91%Yes · Buy $20K · 65.0¢Yes · Buy $16.77K · 64.2¢Yes · Sell $13.22K · 64.0¢Yes · Sell $30.6K · 65.3¢Yes · Sell $20.8K · 67.0¢Yes · Sell $13.8K · 69.0¢Yes · Buy $13.04K · 67.9¢Yes · Sell $23.81K · 69.3¢Yes · Sell $30K · 70.1¢Yes · Sell $71.22K · 76.0¢Yes · Buy $39K · 78.0¢Yes · Buy $25K · 78.0¢Yes · Buy $13.22K · 78.0¢Yes · Buy $11.4K · 76.0¢Yes · Buy $29.92K · 76.7¢Yes · Sell $19.16K · 72.0¢Yes · Buy $71.76K · 71.8¢Yes · Buy $10.92K · 72.1¢Yes · Buy $11.08K · 71.0¢Yes · Buy $30.8K · 70.0¢Yes · Buy $12.17K · 73.0¢Yes · Buy $11.95K · 72.0¢Yes · Sell $11.18K · 72.0¢No · Buy $30.39K · 34.5¢No · Buy $23K · 23.0¢No · Sell $53.25K · 24.2¢No · Buy $19.94K · 29.9¢10/30/202611/6/2026
$20.11K
SellYes
77¢
GoldmanSachs
Just now26.1K
$11.9K
BuyYes
68¢
gaven-willwin
Just now17.5K
$26.84K
BuyYes
67¢
gaven-willwin
Just now40.1K
$32.84K
BuyYes
66¢
gaven-willwin
Just now49.8K
$17.77K
BuyYes
65¢
gaven-willwin
Just now27.3K
$16.77K
BuyYes
64¢
GoldmanSachs
Just now26.1K
$13.22K
SellYes
64¢
simpleman
Just now20.6K
$13.8K
SellYes
69¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul
Just now20K

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$707.42K$376.79K
No$100.15K$65.83K

Participating traders

Review this market
Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.