PolyBigFish
⋯
Tools
Sign in
All marketsGo to Polymarket ↗

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Live probability · Updated

Yes
12.5%
▲ 2.0% 24h
No
87.5%
▼ 2.0% 24h

24h volume$261.32K

Probability

  • Yes12.5%
  • No87.5%
Dots mark big trades
0%25%50%75%100%Yes · Buy $11.49K · 12.0¢Yes · Sell $16.45K · 16.0¢Yes · Sell $22.1K · 17.0¢No · Sell $21.75K · 87.0¢No · Sell $13.35K · 89.0¢No · Sell $10.68K · 89.0¢No · Buy $16.94K · 90.0¢No · Buy $10.33K · 89.0¢No · Buy $17.8K · 89.0¢No · Buy $12.01K · 88.0¢No · Buy $26.58K · 87.0¢No · Buy $65K · 87.0¢No · Buy $16.88K · 86.0¢No · Buy $73.52K · 86.0¢No · Buy $33.6K · 85.0¢No · Buy $25.99K · 85.0¢No · Buy $36K · 84.0¢No · Buy $16.8K · 84.0¢No · Buy $21K · 84.0¢No · Buy $12.62K · 83.0¢No · Buy $10.73K · 81.0¢No · Sell $16.26K · 81.3¢No · Sell $11.07K · 82.0¢No · Buy $24.9K · 83.0¢No · Buy $27.06K · 82.0¢No · Sell $11.38K · 82.0¢No · Sell $16.4K · 82.0¢No · Sell $15.65K · 82.0¢No · Sell $13.11K · 83.0¢No · Sell $166.96K · 84.0¢No · Buy $11.09K · 83.0¢No · Buy $16.6K · 83.0¢10/30/202611/6/2026
$14.98K
BuyNo
88¢
classified
Just now17K
Unusual
$21.75K
SellNo
87¢
Parz1vaI
Just now25K
Unusual
$13.35K
SellNo
89¢
GOLADS96
Just now15K
Unusual
$10.68K
SellNo
89¢
studmuffin6969
Just now12K
$16.94K
BuyNo
90¢
WongKimArk
Just now18.8K
Unusual
$12.01K
BuyNo
88¢
AllByMyseIf
Just now13.6K
$26.58K
BuyNo
87¢
LulaVaiPerder
Just now30.5K
Unusual
$65K
BuyNo
87¢
Votei14Voude22
Just now74.7K
Unusual
$16.88K
BuyNo
86¢
cocos228
Just now19.6K
Unusual
$73.52K
BuyNo
86¢
schizohedgehog
Just now85.5K
Unusual
$33.6K
BuyNo
85¢
schizohedgehog
Just now39.5K
Unusual
$25.99K
BuyNo
85¢
MissaoComFlavio
Just now30.6K
Unusual
$36K
BuyNo
84¢
MissaoComFlavio
Just now42.9K
Unusual
$12.62K
BuyNo
83¢
AllByMyseIf
Just now15.2K

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$41.45K$50.94K
No$1.19M$1.21M

Participating traders

classifiedpIebeParz1vaIdenizzGOLADS96studmuffin6969WongKimArkethBELIVERValen9AllByMyseIfLulaVaiPerderVotei14Voude22cocos228schizohedgehogMissaoComFlavioJJoRockyZetSplendidAmadeusVladimirPooperpakukudolphi0xheavy888Ryxon21rdbaSecondWindCapitalmeagainsttheworld5k7GFTpu9ykQCar0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49hitjnn214Mrkrabs1701Vespucciiseal70xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2xm39Stable-Armamentaff3SaylorMoonZbinikhughjonesd0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05HuludubuTruongMyLanlauremanLlamaLoco0000TBill1tsybkatetrosecarlos484VilgefortzScottyNooo
Review this market
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.