PolyBigFish

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Live probability · Updated

Yes
20.5%
▼ 1.0% 24h
No
79.5%
▲ 1.0% 24h

24h volume$404.72K

Probability

  • Yes20.5%
  • No79.5%
Dots mark big trades
9%29.5%50%70.5%91%Yes · Buy $14.4K · 24.0¢No · Buy $18.38K · 76.0¢No · Buy $22.5K · 76.0¢No · Buy $28.43K · 75.0¢No · Buy $13.49K · 75.0¢No · Buy $13.19K · 75.0¢No · Buy $15.75K · 74.0¢No · Buy $29.63K · 76.0¢10/30/202611/6/2026
$14.4K
BuyYes
24¢
CharityStripe
Just now60K
$22.5K
BuyNo
76¢
ratehikes
Just now29.6K
Unusual
$28.43K
BuyNo
75¢
ratehikes
Just now37.9K
Unusual
$29.63K
BuyNo
76¢
ratehikes
Just now39K
Unusual
$11.63K
SellYes
23¢
woshishabihaha
Just now49.8K
$21.27K
BuyNo
84¢
ratehikes
Just now25.3K
Unusual

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$37.54K$11.63K
No$184.78K$0

Participating traders

Review this market
Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.